Rancho Palos Verdes, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXUS66 KLOX 270203
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
603 PM PST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...26/121 PM.

On and off light showers will continue today and tonight for San
Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties. Los Angeles
County is likely to see periods of drizzle or light rain mid day
today through tonight. Then dry Wednesday through the Thanksgiving
weekend with a slow warming trend and light to moderate Santa Ana
breezes at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...26/152 PM.

The storm is winding down today with rain (drizzle) rates below a
tenth of an inch per hour. Much of LA County still remains dry
but expecting that to change by later this afternoon and evening,
at least across the LA Basin and into the mountains. Amounts there
mostly under 0.05".

Hi res models all in good agreement showing this drizzle and light
rain tapering off tonight with dry conditions Wednesday, except
possibly some lingering light showers near the Grapevine in the
morning.

A slow warming trend will begin on Thanksgiving day coupled with
light to locally moderate offshore flow. Forecast LAX-DAG
gradients have been bouncing around quite a bit the last few days
but seem to have settled at around -3 to -5mb. Winds aloft have
picked up slightly in the latest models but at best this would be
a very low end Santa Ana event. Good enough to lower humidities to
under 30% most areas and initiate a slow warming trend into the
weekend. Highs expected to return to the low 70s as early as
Wednesday with one to two degrees of warming each day into the
weekend. Warmest valleys could be approaching 80 by Monday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/210 PM.

Ensembles continue to favor a dry pattern through the weekend and
likely through the first week in December as a long wave ridge
develops along the West Coast of North America sending all storms
well up and over the state. The ensemble mean H5 pattern shows a
little kink on the east side of the ridge suggesting there are at
least a few individual solutions with an inside slider or back
door trough through the Great Basin that could bring some gusty
Santa Ana winds at times. And in fact there are a few EC ensemble
solutions showing an increase in winds again around the middle of
next week. Overall, very high confidence in a dry pattern for the
next week at least and likely well beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0202Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Moderate LLWS and
UDDF will be possible in and near higher terrain through 06Z Wed.
Timing of flight cat changes and and minimum flight category may
be off by +/- 3 hours and at least one category. Periods of Light
rain is generally expected through 06Z, isolated showers may
linger for some TAF sites through 12Z. There is a 10-20 percent
chance of VSBY 1/4SM-1/2SM during peak rain at all sites. Conds
may frequently bounce categories as rain starts and stops.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes and and minimum flight category may be off by +/- 3 hours
and at least one category. There is a 10 percent chance of VSBY
1/4SM-1/2SM through 15Z Wednesday, especially during rain. There
is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt from 15Z-19Z
Wed.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes and and minimum flight category may be off by +/- 3 hours
and at least one category, respectively. There is a 10 percent
chance of VSBY 1/4SM-1/2SM, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...26/209 PM.

Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected across the CWA
through tonight, with vsbys down to 1 NM or less at times.
Lingering light showers may continue into Wednesday morning.

For the outer waters, there is high confidence in forecast. There
is a 10 to 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts through Thursday
morning. Otherwise, conds should remain below advisory levels
through Saturday.

For all the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. There is a
20 to 30% chance of SCA level NE wind gusts across the inner
waters along the Central Coast and from Ventura to Malibu during
the late night into morning hours Wednesday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones
      379>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox